The Iran War’s Long Shadow: How a Prolonged Conflict Could Send Brent Prices Soaring

Disclaimer: This article was compiled using AI with live web and X search. It involved active prompting, real-time research, and cross-verification from credible sources through April 2, 2026.

As of April 2, 2026, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is in its second month. What began with surprise airstrikes on February 28 has already killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggered widespread regional retaliation, and effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Yet U.S. officials, including President Trump, continue to project a relatively short conflict of “four to five weeks” or “soon.” Multiple credible analyses paint a far more protracted picture.

This deep dive examines why the war could last significantly longer than currently suggested, how the Strait of Hormuz could remain disrupted even with minimal direct U.S. involvement, and the speculative but plausible impacts on global Brent crude prices.

Official Optimism vs. Expert Warnings: The Case for a Longer War

President Trump has repeatedly signaled a quick resolution, initially projecting four to five weeks and later stating the war could “end soon.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described it as “quick and decisive” but not endless. White House officials have echoed a four-to-six-week timeline.

However, Israeli officials privately warn the campaign could stretch into months. Experts at the Institute for the Study of War, ACLED, and think tanks like the International Crisis Group note that regime-change ambitions require far more than airstrikes. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retains significant underground infrastructure, missile stockpiles, and a hardened command structure. Historical precedent is sobering: the Iran-Iraq War lasted eight years despite massive external pressure.

Iran’s resilience stems from:

• Proxy network endurance: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq continue operations independently. These groups operate with their own funding, weapons caches, and decision-making, allowing Iran to sustain pressure even if central command is degraded.
• Asymmetric warfare doctrine: Iran has long prepared for prolonged attrition, dispersing assets and using low-cost drones, mines, and speedboats.
• Domestic cohesion and succession: The rapid elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader shows continuity. Public rallies and IRGC statements indicate the regime is framing the conflict as existential, boosting internal resolve.

Without a clear postwar plan for governance in a post-regime Iran, the conflict risks becoming an open-ended quagmire. Analysts warn that “mission creep” is already evident, with U.S. forces preparing contingency ground options.

The Strait of Hormuz: Disruption Without Full U.S. Commitment

Since March 4, 2026, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to most international shipping, declaring it under Iranian control and selectively allowing passage for vessels from China, Russia, India, and other non-adversaries. Approximately 20% of global oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas transit this narrow chokepoint daily.

Even if U.S. involvement remains limited to airstrikes and naval patrols (avoiding large-scale ground operations), the strait could stay disrupted for months. Here’s why:

• Iran’s low-cost tools: Mines, anti-ship missiles, drones, and swarms of small boats allow Iran to harass shipping without needing naval superiority. Reopening the strait by force would require dangerous minesweeping and convoy operations in confined waters.
• Proxy amplification: Houthis have re-entered the fray, launching attacks on Israel and threatening Red Sea shipping. This creates a secondary chokepoint at Bab el-Mandeb, forcing rerouting that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline can only partially offset (currently handling ~5 million barrels per day).
• Insurance and commercial reality: Lloyd’s of London and other insurers have dramatically raised war-risk premiums. Even without constant attacks, shipping companies are avoiding the area, causing de facto closure.

U.S. threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure or seize the strait have so far failed to force reopening. Analysts describe Iran’s strategy as “coercive bargaining”: using the closure as leverage while avoiding all-out naval confrontation. This dynamic can persist indefinitely with minimal U.S. escalation.

Speculative Impacts on Brent Crude: What Could Happen Next

Brent crude has already surged dramatically. From pre-war levels around $70–75 per barrel, prices climbed to $112–119 in late March 2026, a 50–60% increase and on track for the largest monthly gain on record.

Speculative scenarios based on current data (not predictions):

• Short disruption (weeks): Prices could stabilize in the $90–110 range as markets price in partial recovery. This aligns with official timelines but ignores proxy and insurance effects.
• Prolonged partial closure (3–6+ months): Sustained Hormuz and potential Red Sea disruptions could keep 10–15 million barrels per day offline. Bloomberg Intelligence and other analysts have modeled spikes to $140+ per barrel in worst-case sustained scenarios. Saudi rerouting and SPR releases would mitigate but not eliminate the shock.
• Broader proxy escalation: Full Houthi involvement in the Red Sea plus Iranian mining campaigns could push Brent toward $150–200 temporarily, triggering global recession fears, fuel rationing in Asia, and emergency G7 interventions.

These are speculative projections grounded in March 2026 analyst models from Reuters polls, Federal Reserve research, and Bloomberg. Actual outcomes depend on diplomacy, Iranian restraint, and U.S. willingness to escalate. Oil markets are forward-looking; even the threat of prolonged closure keeps prices elevated.

Critics note that U.S. officials may have underestimated Iran’s willingness to weaponize the strait, leading to the current energy crisis.

Why This Matters Now

One month into the conflict, the gap between optimistic official timelines and on-the-ground realities is widening. Iran’s proxies, geographic advantages, and history of endurance suggest the war could extend well beyond the “weeks” narrative. The Strait of Hormuz remains the ultimate pressure valve, and its disruption does not require full-scale U.S. naval war to persist.

For energy markets, the result is sustained volatility and upside risk to Brent crude. While no one can predict the exact duration, the evidence points to a conflict that may test patience, budgets, and global supply chains far longer than initially suggested.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, Britannica, Institute for the Study of War, ACLED, Federal Reserve Bank research, and primary reporting through April 2, 2026. All claims cross-verified.